JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will achieve an annualized return of 10% over the next decade, potentially outperforming US stocks, US bonds, and gold.

BlockBeats news, October 20: JPMorgan, in its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report released on Tuesday, set specific return forecasts for Bitcoin for the first time, projecting an annualized return of 10% under a baseline scenario over the next decade, 17% under a bullish scenario, and -9.7% under a bearish scenario.

By comparison, JPMorgan expects annualized returns of 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large-cap and small-cap stocks, respectively, over the next decade, 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds, and 5.5% for gold. According to the bank's forecasts, Bitcoin's baseline return will exceed those of the traditional assets mentioned above.

However, JPMorgan remains cautious about Bitcoin's role in portfolios. The bank noted that Bitcoin's high volatility and unstable correlation with other assets remain obstacles to its widespread inclusion in portfolios. JPMorgan does not regard Bitcoin as a reliable portfolio diversification tool, but instead positions it as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

The bank's digital asset strategy team believes that Bitcoin mainly behaves as a high-beta risk asset correlated with global money supply growth, and is sometimes viewed as "digital gold." Its fundamentals lack support from traditional cash flows, and future performance will also be affected by factors such as market adoption, the regulatory environment, and liquidity.