An account sharing the name of the U.S. Defense Secretary, with a 93% win rate on the Trump board, predicts the U.S.-Iran ceasefire won't last more than 2 days.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, a copycat trader with the ID "petehegseth" and a bio claiming to be the "U.S. Secretary of Defense, DUI background, on the job" has currently invested $3.5k to predict that "the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last until October 22." As of publication, the probability of "lasting until the 22nd" is 92%; the "No" shares held by petehegseth account for 11.4% of the market's total, ranking first.

petehegseth has a 93.3% win rate across 15 trades in the Trump category, with PnL +$678 and ROI +14.4%. It should be noted that their historical trades related to the Trump category mostly revolve around predictions on Trump's statements and related keywords, not the geopolitical category.

On October 19, Trump posted that "unless they (Iran) quickly change course, we will soon wrap things up." On the same day, he publicly gave Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "complete and total endorsement" to align with Israel's October 27 election. In a briefing to Israeli reporters, Netanyahu reiterated that toppling the Islamic Republic remains a key goal and said Israel could act independently of Washington if necessary.

Iran International reported on October 19 that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded to Trump's "wrap things up" remark: "Want to try your luck again? Go ahead. But be careful, we also have unfinished business on our side." On the diplomatic front, Araghchi said Tehran's "seven-day plan" proposed in September is still implementable: if the U.S. accepts the conditions, reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day and start negotiations on the seventh day; the conditions include ending the naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, and a ceasefire on all fronts.