Can Bitcoin hit $100,000 by year-end? Market views diverge, with institutional bullishness clashing with macroeconomic headwinds.

BlockBeats news, October 18 - Whether Bitcoin can return to $100,000 by the end of the year is becoming a focal point of debate among analysts. Ryan Rasmussen, research director at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, holds an optimistic view, believing that as the market digests short-term uncertainties, Bitcoin is expected to break through $100,000 before year-end. Core drivers include institutional buying from ETFs and corporate funds, demand for hard assets amid rising inflation and government debt, and regulatory clarity. However, he expects that a possible Federal Reserve rate hike at the end of October and the U.S. midterm elections in November will bring severe volatility.

In contrast, Adam Morgan McCarthy, research director at LO:TECH, is more cautious. His baseline scenario predicts Bitcoin oscillating in the $85,000 to $95,000 range by year-end. The Federal Reserve already raised rates in September, with about a 75% probability of a rate hike in December, and the macro environment continues to be unfavorable for bulls. A return to $100,000 would require the fading of December rate hike expectations as well as cooling oil prices and inflation.

Market microstructure leaves a glimmer of hope for bulls. Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, pointed out that excessive leverage has largely been cleared, speculative positions have shifted to altcoins, and funding rates are at zero or negative. The August rally mainly stemmed from short covering rather than new long positions, which creates conditions for a subsequent short squeeze. Once BTC cleanly breaks through $90,000, it could trigger a new round of short covering.

James Butterfill, research director at CoinShares, believes that government fiscal risks could translate into demand for Bitcoin in the long term, but sustained capital allocation based on fiscal arguments is needed before a decisive breakout can be expected.

A Citigroup report noted that total crypto market capitalization rose from approximately $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter, with institutional ETF flows turning to net inflows, though recent inflows have slowed. Overall, the tug-of-war between long-term institutional adoption and short-term macro tightening constitutes the core suspense for year-end price action.