Opinion: The risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI may have been priced in ahead of time; if MSTR's net mNAV falls below 1, it would be an opportunity.

BlockBeats news, October 17 - Crypto KOL CM has expressed the view that the market may have already priced in the impact of MSCI removing MicroStrategy (Strategy), and when passive selling pressure actually materializes, MSTR's stock price may not necessarily decline significantly further. MSTR closed down 9.56% yesterday.

There are different statistical calibers for the current market valuation of MSTR. The ordinary mNAV is the ratio of the company's stock market capitalization to the value of its BTC holdings, while the net mNAV takes into account factors such as preferred stock and debt, reflecting the stock price relative to the net BTC value per share. Instances of net mNAV falling below 1 are relatively rare and typically signal that the market is beginning to worry about the company's operating conditions or its valuation logic.

Taking June of this year as an example, the market was then concerned about Strategy's insolvency due to tight cash reserves and falling BTC prices, and net mNAV came under pressure at one point. Currently, Strategy has ample cash reserves, theoretically sufficient to cover dividend expenses for approximately the next three years, and BTC prices remain above its holding cost of approximately $75,000, so the probability of net mNAV once again falling to 1 is not high. If it does fall below 1 at that time, it may instead become an investment opportunity.