An account that continuously bet on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and U.S.-Iran reconciliation, earning $300,000, and specializes in low-probability events, believes the U.S. will invade Cuba.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on September 25, CBS reported that it had obtained an internal letter from the Army Reserve. The letter asked subordinate units whether they could provide military police, medical, engineering, logistics and other support forces to Southern Command within 90 to 120 days. The text of the document did not mention "Cuba," but multiple anonymous officials told CBS that this was related to ongoing military planning against Cuba.

Over the past 12 hours, the probability on the prediction market Polymarket of "the U.S. invading Cuba this year" rose from 5% to 11%. An account that had accurately predicted two low-probability geopolitical events—the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and U.S.-Iran reconciliation—bought "Yes" in this market:

Ferwhere bought $5,400 of "Yes" at an entry probability of 6.92%. In the geopolitical section, it has made a total of 37 trades in the 0%–15% entry price range, with a win rate of 8%, PnL +$145.4k, and this bet was 10.41 times its median bet.

On September 26, the day after the CBS Reserve report was published, Trump responded to reporters at the White House when asked whether he planned to use force against Cuba: "I don't think we need to use the military," "We want to help Cuba. We want to open Cuba to our people"; entering October, the public narrative shifted from "whether troops will be sent immediately" to "talks not working out, energy pressure continues." Cuban diplomats said externally that the two sides have communication channels, but there are no formal negotiations, nor any agenda or roadmap; Cuba also claimed that its defense preparations are "stronger than ever."