Bitcoin flash crashes, four accounts with high win rates in price prediction believe BTC will hold the $77,500 level.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, over the past approximately 12 hours, Bitcoin fell from around $84k to around $80.2k, a drop of nearly 4%; during the most severe dozen or so minutes of the flash crash, about $350M in longs were liquidated. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $77.5k in October rose from 30% yesterday to the current 54%.

-Yang- bought $2.95k "No", with an entry probability of 59.7%. They have made a total of 150 trades in the BTC sector, with an 85% win rate, PnL +$10.1k, and this bet was 5.25 times their median bet size.

emffg bought $998.24 "No", with an entry probability of 62.49%. They have made a total of 89 trades in the BTC sector, with an 88% win rate, PnL +$6.7k, and this bet was 2.01 times their median bet size.

WilT bought $797.3 "No", with an entry probability of 70%. They have made a total of 159 trades in the BTC sector, with a 75% win rate, PnL +$12.1k, and this bet was 0.93 times their median bet size.

LucasMeow bought $530 "No", with an entry probability of 52.99%. They have made a total of 94 trades in the BTC sector, with a 98% win rate, PnL +$110.3k, and this bet was 0.01 times their median bet size.

Yesterday, U.S. September CPI came in at about 3.7% year-over-year, higher than expected, and market pricing for an October rate hike rose accordingly; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $760M in net outflows since around October 7; once the price fell below about $81k, leveraged positions were liquidated in a chain reaction. WatcherGuru, AshCrypto, and others simultaneously reported the drop below $81k and hundreds of millions of dollars in long liquidations.

Trader craigscoinpurse said the price is moving back and forth around the $80k–$81k area and set $78k as the next downside range; Bitcoin_World20 wrote, "A deeper pullback is already approaching $80k, and now $80k must be firmly defended, otherwise $78k will soon be seen." In the on-chain narrative, Glassnode put the U.S. spot ETF cost basis at about $81.5k and the true market average price—the average purchase cost of active investors—at about $77.5k–$78k.