Analyst: The market's wavering chips are gradually being cleared out, but panic has not yet been fully released.

BlockBeats news, October 15th — As of October 15, 2026, Bitcoin has pulled back to around $81,000 three times, on October 9, 12, and 15, repeatedly testing the same support zone. The latest decline was compounded by macro headwinds including U.S. inflation coming in above expectations, rising market concerns that the Federal Reserve will further tighten monetary policy, and weakness in U.S. stocks, putting broad pressure on risk assets.

Crypto market analyst Murphy said that, based on on-chain entity-adjusted realized loss data, the loss scale corresponding to the three dips shows a clear diminishing pattern: October 12 was smaller than October 9, and although October 15 was somewhat larger than October 12, it was still lower than October 9. This indicates that October 9 was more like a peak at which short-term price-sensitive holdings concentrated their exit; during the second retest, the market was largely in a wait-and-see mood, and the willingness to sell was not strong; while the third decline, catalyzed by macro bearish factors, once again forced some wavering holdings to stop out.

Therefore, the current market is closer to a gradual clearing out of "swing positions" rather than full-scale panic selling. If the loss ratio of short-term holders is still only about 31%, below the historical cumulative average of 42.7%, it suggests that the clearing of holdings may not yet be sufficient, and further volatility and selling pressure cannot be ruled out in the future.

Next, the key focus should be on whether the scale of realized losses continues to converge: if prices remain near the current support zone while loss realization gradually weakens, it means passive selling is decreasing and the phased correction may be nearing its end. Conversely, if the scale of losses expands significantly again, it would indicate that the market still needs to undergo a more thorough exchange of holdings.