US September CPI to be released tonight, rising inflation expectations may prompt the Fed to restart rate hikes.

BlockBeats news, October 14 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September CPI data at 20:30 tonight. Institutions expect the headline CPI year-over-year increase to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.6%, with a month-over-month increase of 0.6%, the largest gain in nearly 5 months, mainly driven by a rebound in energy prices. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, below the previous reading of 0.3%.

This CPI is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting. CME data shows the market currently expects about a 17% probability of a Fed rate hike in October. If core CPI month-over-month rises to 0.3%, it could reinforce expectations for a rate hike this month; if it meets the 0.2% expectation, the Fed may hold off and push the rate decision to December.

In addition, the U.S. will release PPI data on Thursday. Both CPI and PPI will influence the market's judgment on the subsequent inflation trend and the Fed's policy path.