Oil tankers hit by successive attacks, US temporarily halts military action, high-win-rate account predicts crude oil trend this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 8, Trump stated on Truth Social that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Following the announcement, WTI fell from around $92.7 to near $90.5.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Will WTI crude oil futures hit $100 in October" is currently around 32%, down 11 percentage points from before the news.

laureman bought $4.11k on "No" at a buy probability of 68.51%. They have made 11 trades in the oil sector, with a 91% win rate, PnL +$2.8k, and this bet is 1.52 times their median bet size.

Axios reported that the Pentagon had previously asked CENTCOM to prepare to resume large-scale combat operations, with potential targets including Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facilities. Israeli officials believe the probability of a strike before the election is low, but have not completely ruled it out.

In the same post, Trump emphasized that the blockade on Iran remains in effect. Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz are still occurring, the Houthis continue firing missiles toward Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf of Mexico is also affected by hurricane-related production shutdowns. Even if the U.S. does not proactively resume strikes, shipping and supply-side factors could still independently create oil price shocks.