Comparable to quantitative returns, the yield curve has been breached, yet smart money still believes BTC will not see a major rally this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, Rin2x has been consistently profitable since creating the account in October 2024, with a cumulative 4,564 positions, of which 3,510 are related to coin price rises and falls, with an overall win rate of 82%. Before the 8.19 BTC surge, the cumulative PnL was +$61k.

This account's trading strategy focuses on BTC not experiencing extreme volatility. In May 2025, the BTC rebound once caused its PnL to drop from +$9k to -$4.7k; after this round of the August 19 BTC surge, the account's PnL quickly fell from about +$61k to about -$11k.

Currently, he has invested $14k in "Can BTC reach $102.5k in October?", buying "No" at a price of 94.33%, with a position about 45.56 times his historical median.

September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's pricing for a Fed rate hike in October also dropped from about 70% to about 35%–40%, providing a short-term buffer for risk assets such as BTC. Citi also raised its 12-month BTC target price to about $113k, and net inflows into spot ETFs in September were about $2.6b. If subsequent ETF inflows expand and BTC regains $87.5k, the market may still trade scenarios of $90k or even above $100k again. Historically, there have also been 6 Octobers with monthly gains exceeding 20%, so reaching $102.5k is not entirely impossible.