US September nonfarm payrolls preview: job growth expected to slow, October rate hike expectations have fallen sharply.

BlockBeats news, October 2 — The United States will release the September nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. The latest Reuters survey shows that U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September are expected to increase by 90,000, significantly lower than the 162,000 increase in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% for a third consecutive month. After the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate hike in three years in September, this report will become one of the key data points for judging whether the labor market remains resilient and whether another rate hike is needed in October.

Markets are currently focused not only on the number of new jobs. August employment data was unexpectedly strong, but some economists believe this may have been affected by seasonal adjustment factors, and the August increase could be revised down when the September data is released.

Before the release of the September nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October had already fallen sharply. As of Thursday, markets priced in about a 28% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, down from nearly 69% a week earlier. Therefore, the most important information in tonight's employment report is not only whether nonfarm payrolls meet the market expectation of 90,000. Whether the unemployment rate can remain at 4.1%, whether wage growth accelerates again, and whether the strong 162,000 increase in August will be significantly revised down will jointly determine the market's judgment on the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the pace of the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.