Did the China-US summit and the establishment of "panda diplomacy" also become prediction markets?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, during the China-US summit on September 24, the Chinese side announced that two giant pandas, Pingping and Fushuang, would go to Zoo Atlanta; on September 27, the two pandas had already departed from Chengdu for the United States. The White House also confirmed in a fact sheet after the China-US summit that it welcomed China's loan of two giant pandas to Zoo Atlanta.

After the incident fermented online, the prediction market Polymarket today launched a new market, "Will Trump visit the pandas this year?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 11%.

Panda diplomacy is usually regarded by mainstream media as one of China's most recognizable soft power tools. After Nixon's visit to China in 1972, China gifted Ling-Ling and Hsing-Hsing to the United States, an arrangement that became a symbol of the ice-breaking period in China-US relations. After 1984, China gradually shifted from direct gifting to long-term leasing; the pandas still belong to China, and the leasing fees are usually explained as funds for conservation and breeding. Pandas therefore simultaneously possess three attributes: animal conservation, public diplomacy, and political signaling.

The most common summary in the media of panda diplomacy is that it can both improve ordinary people's perceptions of China and serve as a thermometer of bilateral relations. When relations improve, China may send or renew the lease of pandas; when relations deteriorate, agreements expire, or political disputes heat up, the pandas may be recalled or their leases may not be renewed. Around 2023, the return of multiple pandas from the United States once triggered discussion of whether panda diplomacy was coming to an end; the subsequent reacquisition of pandas by the United States was interpreted as the two sides preserving a channel for people-to-people exchanges despite structural contradictions.