3 star prediction market traders 'still bullish on the CLARITY Act passing this year'

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on September 15, a procedural vote initiated by the Senate failed to meet the threshold with a 49-50 tally, with only Republicans in favor. As a result, the probability on the prediction market Polymarket for the "CLARITY Act" being enacted within the year dropped from 33% to a low of 4.8%, and currently stands at 5%.

However, among the top holders of the "Yes" position in this market, there are still many accounts that have performed well in related sectors and achieved long-term profitability on the platform:

wan123 bought $59.84k of "Yes" at an entry probability of 11.08%. They have made 283 trades in the political sector, with a win rate of 43%, PnL +$1.5m, and this investment is 18.21 times their median investment.
aenews2 bought $47.16k of "Yes" at an entry probability of 12.55%. They have made 2,340 trades in the political sector, with a win rate of 55%, PnL +$1.7m, and this investment is 30.62 times their median investment.
ImJustKen bought $39.66k of "Yes" at an entry probability of 12.77%. They have made 8,372 trades in the political sector, with a win rate of 46%, PnL +$2.9m, and this investment is 79.21 times their median investment.

The failure of this round of voting does not mean the bill has been rejected. Republican leaders can still amend the provisions and reinitiate a procedural vote, and the final text of the bill has already been formed, with some of the previous objections from law enforcement agencies also addressed.

But even if 60 votes are secured next time, the version passed by the Senate still needs to be reconciled with the House text, and then both chambers must approve the same version and send it to the President for signature. With only about 3 months left until the end of the year, the main practical window is the lame-duck session after the November midterm elections (newly elected members in the midterms will not take office until January 3, 2027, and cannot directly participate in votes before the end of this year).

One possible holding logic at present is that the bill already has overwhelming majority support in the House and support from the Senate committee, and only the procedural vote failed; after the midterm elections, lawmakers will no longer face immediate electoral pressure, and both sides may continue to exchange conditions around the Trump family's crypto conflict of interest, state attorney general authority, stablecoin rewards, and DeFi regulation.