Rare in 25 years! 10-year US Treasury yield surpasses S&P 500 earnings yield.

BlockBeats news, September 29: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 5% and exceeded the S&P 500 earnings yield measured by the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, pushing the appeal of bonds relative to stocks to the highest level in about 25 years. This means that based on yield comparison alone, the return investors can obtain from holding U.S. Treasuries is now higher than the earnings yield currently corresponding to stocks.

Yale University economist Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted excess CAPE yield model shows that, based on current stock valuations and Treasury yield levels, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only about 1% per year over the next 10 years. However, the model's forecasting accuracy has declined in recent years, and actual stock market performance has been significantly stronger than its previous expectations.

Current high yields partly reflect that the U.S. economy remains resilient, but they also place higher demands on stock valuations and corporate earnings expectations. Investors who previously bet on long-term U.S. Treasuries have already suffered losses due to falling bond prices, but the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% has also led to a reassessment of bonds' allocation value.