Analyst: Bitcoin CEX net outflows hit a near one-year high, but futures buying remains cautious.

BlockBeats news, September 28 — As Bitcoin fluctuates near $83,000, on-chain spot supply has shown notable contraction. A latest report by on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. shows that as of September 27, the 7-day average of net BTC outflows from exchanges has risen to 16,100 BTC per day, the strongest level since early October 2025.

On September 20, the 7-day average of net flows on trading platforms was still an inflow of 7,300 BTC per day; by September 22, capital flows began to reverse, and net outflows subsequently continued to expand. Net outflows from trading platforms do not directly equate to new buying, but they mean the Bitcoin supply available for trading in the market at any time is decreasing, which is usually seen as a signal of potential accumulation or transfer into long-term custody.

However, the derivatives market has not yet given equally strong confirmation of an upward move. Adler's Bitcoin position index shows that the 30-day average advantage of perpetual contract buyers has fallen from 7.6 on August 27 to -1.4 on September 28, and has remained below the zero line since September 23. This indicator reflects the difference in activity between buyers and sellers in the futures market. A negative value means bulls have not yet taken the initiative, but -1.4 is still close to the neutral range, and bearish dominance has not yet expanded significantly.

The analyst said that if net outflows from trading platforms continue and the position index rises back above the zero line, Bitcoin's supply contraction will gain stronger trend confirmation; if net flows turn back to inflows and futures buying remains weak, an increase in sellable coins on trading platforms will become a short-term risk.