Can crypto thefts also be turned into prediction markets, and will hackers themselves engage in insider trading?

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "whether the total value stolen in crypto in 2026 will exceed $3b" has risen from 2.7% a month ago to 68% currently.

Based on DefiLlama's current data retrospective, the cumulative amount stolen year-to-date before August 28 was approximately $1.369b, with about $866.9m added in the following month. Among these, Tectonic lost $124.47m, Liquid Network lost $320m, and the Bitget incident added another $387m.

As of September 28, DefiLlama has recorded a total of 281 incidents in 2026, with cumulative losses of approximately $2.236b, still about $763.9m short of exceeding $3b. The single Bitget incident accounts for approximately 17.3% of the current year-to-date cumulative amount.

Theoretically, if the order book depth is sufficient, attackers could buy "Yes" before acting and profit from both the stolen assets and the prediction market. Although the liquidity of this market is limited, the question remains: when a market rewards destructive events such as hacker attacks, should platforms establish relevant mechanisms to prevent prediction markets from turning from risk pricing tools into an additional bonus pool for criminal behavior.