Computing power futures near launch, B200 price market sees 87% increase in two weeks.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the Ornn B200 index reaching $7.50 this month" has risen from a low of 5.7% two weeks ago to 93%, an increase of 87.3 percentage points. Ornn data shows that its B200 index rose from $7.19/GPU hour on September 14 to $8.08/GPU hour on September 27, an increase of about 12.4% over two weeks.

The B200 index refers to the compute rental price index for Nvidia's Blackwell architecture B200 GPU, measuring how much it costs to rent one B200 for 1 hour, in units of $/GPU hour. Nebius's pricing page shows that its HGX B200 on-demand price will increase from $7.15/GPU hour to $8.50/GPU hour starting October 1, a rise of about 18.9%; prices for H100, H200, and B300 will also be raised accordingly.

Compute itself is shifting from cloud services to a tradable commodity. ICE and Ornn have announced plans to launch cash-settled GPU compute futures based on the Ornn index, with coverage potentially including H100, H200, and B200; CME plans to launch H100 and B200 compute futures on October 5, still subject to regulatory review. In the future, AI companies will be able to lock in compute costs in advance just as airlines hedge oil prices, and compute prices will also develop clearer spot, forward, and hedging markets.