Banxia Investment's Li Bei: AI capital expenditure may peak by mid-next year, with risks of a second round of decline.

BlockBeats news, September 24: Li Bei, a well-known Chinese hedge fund manager and founder of Shanghai Banxia Investment, warned of AI bubble risks in an exclusive interview with Tencent Finance. She judged that although overseas AI capital expenditure is still growing, its quarter-over-quarter growth rate may peak in the middle of next year. Previously, cloud vendors' upward revisions to investment were based on the assumption of high-speed linear growth in AI model revenue. Extrapolating from the first-quarter trend, total model revenue would be about RMB 500 billion by the end of this year and exceed RMB 1 trillion in the next two years, which would not count as a bubble if matched with the current annual capital expenditure of more than RMB 1 trillion. But in fact, ARR growth has already slowed significantly in the second quarter.

Li Bei pointed out that the AI sector's correction since July is not a "Davis double kill"; what has fallen is valuation, and the market still recognizes substantial profit growth in 2027. However, if ARR cannot rise, the investment level will be unsustainable, and capital expenditure is very likely to peak in 2027. Even if it does not peak in 2027, it will peak in 2028. Li Bei judged that AI's "second wave of decline" will only appear when capital expenditure truly peaks and profit expectations begin to decline, possibly in the middle of next year. When the AI boom fades, the U.S. economy declines, U.S. Treasury yields fall, and the dollar depreciates, China's consumer sector may instead become a "desert oasis" for global assets.