Los Angeles mayoral election deadlock unresolved, 2 election smart money predict Raman will win.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, a Los Angeles Times poll on September 23 shows City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff. 63% of respondents hold a negative view of Bass, and 56% rate her handling of the Palisades fire as poor or very poor.

On the prediction market Polymarket, Raman's probability of winning rose from 43% to 58% over the past 24 hours. Two highly profitable accounts in the U.S. election category predict she will win:

bernardbulletin bought $35.6k "Yes" at a buy probability of 29.64%. Trading tail-end at 90%+, their unsettled/closed trades in the U.S. election category total 102, with a 45% win rate, PnL +$23.9k, and this bet is 441.33x their median bet size.
SnowLover7 bought $14.36k "Yes" at a buy probability of 35.89%. Trading tail-end at 90%+, their unsettled/closed trades in the U.S. election category total 100, with a 49% win rate, PnL +$28.1k, and this bet is 11.73x their median bet size.

On September 2, the Los Angeles chapter of Democratic Socialists of America officially endorsed Raman, giving her organizational mobilization resources; after mid-September, the advertising battle shifted to television and streaming: Raman's Hollywood-themed ads focus on urban vitality and cost of living; Bass's ads emphasize that she went to MacArthur Park to protest during federal immigration enforcement operations; the Los Angeles Police Protective League, which supports Bass, uses footage of students passing homeless encampments to attack Raman's position against bans on encampments near schools.

Municipal issues remain the focus of contention between both sides. Homelessness, the response to the Palisades fire, and the aftermath of the Lineage warehouse fire continue to generate negative news for Bass; her supporters emphasize her governing experience and question Raman's performance and execution ability on the City Council.