Fed section 80% win-rate account predicts a total of 3 rate hikes this year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, over the past 24 hours, the probability of "the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year" on the prediction market Polymarket rose from 20% to 34%. AMATEUR bought $231.49 of "Yes" in this market, with a buy probability of 17.01%.

AMATEUR has made a total of 15 trades in the Fed sector, with an 80% win rate, PnL +$1.1k, and this bet was 4.49 times their median bet.

The preliminary U.S. composite PMI released on September 23 rose to 58.4, higher than 56.0 in August, the fastest expansion since July 2021; the input prices index for businesses also rose to 66.4, the highest since October 2022.

On September 22, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said U.S. economic conditions are "if anything, strengthening"; supply chain pressures from tariffs, Middle East conflicts, and AI construction may persist, and the time needed for inflation to fall may be longer than expected. On September 23, Fed Governor Michael Barr further stated that inflation risks are rising and labor market risks are weakening, and under the baseline scenario, further rate hikes may still be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a timely manner.

The diesel export controversy has added a policy variable to the inflation outlook. On September 22, Trump said in New York that he supports restricting diesel exports; Treasury Secretary Bessent, who was at the same event, said the government is assessing whether a ban is feasible. On September 23, Energy Secretary Chris Wright opposed a full ban, saying that if diesel cannot be exported, it will fill up storage space and force refineries to cut production, which could instead push up gasoline and jet fuel prices; the White House also denied that it was preparing the 90-day full ban reported in the media.