Opinion: Kalshi's valuation could reach $42.1 billion, with a base case of $30.4 billion

BlockBeats news, September 24 — A latest 46-page report from financial investment data firm PitchBook valued prediction market platform Kalshi at approximately $30.4 billion in its base-case scenario; if market performance is strong, the valuation could reach as high as $42.1 billion, while the bear-case scenario is $22.8 billion.

Kalshi just completed a $1 billion Series F funding round in May this year, reaching a post-money valuation of $22 billion. PitchBook expects Kalshi's revenue to reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profit reaching $3.7 billion, and believes its partnerships with platforms and market makers such as Robinhood and Susquehanna will help consolidate its market share.

However, regulatory risk in the sports prediction market remains a key variable affecting Kalshi's valuation. PitchBook data shows that the sports market currently contributes about 69.9% of Kalshi's event fee revenue, and when including "Exotics" products such as multi-game parlays, the share rises to 82.4%.

Currently, multiple U.S. states and Native American tribes are filing lawsuits over the legality of Kalshi's sports prediction products, and the related cases have created divisions among federal appellate courts, with the Supreme Court expected to potentially intervene next year. PitchBook believes that even if the final ruling goes against Kalshi, the company may still adjust its business model through state-level licenses and the development of non-sports prediction products, but a sharp decline in sports revenue would still significantly impact its growth expectations.