Prediction market smart money collectively takes sides, will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rise to 5.5%?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5.5%" increased from 10% to 20% over the past 24 hours. Currently, the smart money predicting "Yes" in the related sector is performing as follows:

· HDGB bought $1.91k "Yes" at a buy probability of 13.37%. Using 90%+ as late-stage trading, its open trades in the economic sector total 14, with a win rate of 14%, PnL +$6.0k, and this bet is 9.41 times its median bet size.
· InterestingUser bought $983.63 "Yes" at a buy probability of 10.76%. Using 90%+ as late-stage trading, its open trades in the economic sector total 42, with a win rate of 64%, PnL +$26.4k, and this bet is 3.58 times its median bet size.
· Started-with-20-USD bought $208.13 "Yes" at a buy probability of 18.49%. Using 90%+ as late-stage trading, its open trades in the Treasury sector total 7, with a win rate of 71%, PnL +$1.2k, and this bet is 1.40 times its median bet size.

Cailian Press said on September 23 that Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that, with Iran under sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz cannot be allowed to be used freely.

On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said at the Chicago Fed housing conference that inflation risks are rising, labor market risks are declining, economic growth remains strong, and inflation is not clearly returning toward the 2% target. He said the Fed's rate hike last week was an adjustment in the right direction, and stated that under his baseline scenario, further rate adjustments may be needed to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner.