Trump's approval rating hits a new low, losing two more strongholds in the midterm elections?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts with standout performance in the US election sector over the past 24 hours predicted that Republicans will lose the 2026 Senate elections in Kansas and South Carolina. South Carolina and Kansas both voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, with leads of about 17.9% and 16.1%, respectively.

Railcool bought $1,160 of "No" in "Will Republicans win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?" at a buy probability of 13%. It has made a total of 11 trades in the US election sector, with a win rate of 73%, PnL +$15.3k, and this bet was 1.04 times its median bet size.

bernardbulletin bought $1,180 of "No" in "Will Republicans win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?" at a buy probability of 26.99%. It has made a total of 457 trades in the US election sector, with a win rate of 71%, PnL +$64.3k, and this bet was 15.35 times its median bet size.

South Carolina has not elected a Democratic federal senator since 1998. This time, the Republican candidate is Trump-backed Darline Graham, and the Democratic candidate is Annie Andrews. In 2020, the late Senator Lindsey Graham still defeated his Democratic opponent by about 10 percentage points. If Democrats really win South Carolina this year, it would break a record that has lasted nearly 30 years.

Kansas's historical baseline is even more Republican-leaning. The state has not elected a Democratic federal senator since 1932. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is facing Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton. However, an Emerson poll from September 15-16 showed Hamilton temporarily leading Marshall 45% to 43%, with Hamilton's advantage even more pronounced among independent voters.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey showed Trump's overall approval rating at 32%, the lowest since the organization began tracking his two terms; Republican voters' support for him also fell from 86% in January to 73%. On economic issues, Republican voters' approval of Trump's handling of the US economy fell to 56%, and approval on the cost of living fell further to 44%.