Large models launching in droves? A look at the probability of popular model releases on prediction markets.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, as of September 22, multiple model release markets on the prediction platform Polymarket are simultaneously in high-probability ranges, covering OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta.

On the Anthropic side, the probability that the next-generation Claude Opus model will be released on September 22 is 79%. The community has recently linked this market to the rumored Claude Opus 5.5, with related claims including that the model is being tested under the codename claude-wafer-eap and may be released this week.

On the OpenAI side, the probability that the next-generation GPT Luna model will be released this month is 90%. A "major product" OpenAI had originally planned to release last week was delayed to this week, and Tibo tweeted that quotas will be reset on the 22nd and that there are "a few other things."

On the Google side, the probability that Gemini 4.0 will be released before November is 78%. Google has officially disclosed that Gemini 4 is undergoing one of the largest pretraining runs in the company's history, and recent market chatter also includes claims that Gemini 4 Pro is being tested under a codename in Arena.

On the Muse Spark side, the probability that the next-generation Muse Spark model will be released before November is 73%. No clear official release timeline has been seen in publicly available materials so far.