This week's macro outlook: Trump's Middle East 'big decision' looms; China-US summit; financial markets in multiple Asian regions closed for Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

BlockBeats news, September 21 — Global markets this week will digest the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 and reprice a "higher for longer" rate path. Geopolitically, Trump is set to meet Gulf states during the UN General Assembly and is nearing a "major decision" on whether to escalate strikes on Iran; Saudi Arabia's capital sounded air defense alarms again after several months, with oil market risk premiums and actual supply recovery pulling against each other. Key events are as follows:

On the data front, the U.S. will release preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI, weekly changes in ADP employment, initial jobless claims, August new home sales, durable goods orders, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Europe will release September PMIs for multiple countries, and Germany will also publish the September IFO business climate index.

On the events front, Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to the U.S. from September 19 to 23 for economic and trade consultations, with progress related to a China-U.S. summit worth watching; the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will also speak; on Tuesday, Trump will meet Persian Gulf states during the UN General Assembly in New York and is nearing a "major decision" on policy toward Iran.

On the markets front, crude oil investors need to watch API and EIA inventory data, as well as the rollover of NYMEX New York crude October futures. Domestic refined oil products will open a new pricing adjustment window on Thursday.

On the holidays front, Japanese stocks will be affected by holidays on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday this week, South Korean stocks will be closed Thursday and Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival, China A-shares and Taiwan stocks will be closed Friday, and Hong Kong stocks will trade normally but northbound and southbound trading will be closed. On Sunday, New Zealand enters daylight saving time, and financial market trading and economic data release times will be one hour earlier than during standard time.