Account that predicted US-Iran reconciliation and earned $410,000 believes the two countries will hold diplomatic talks this month.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, SlotinCap previously profited approximately $410,000 (+386.79%) from a US-Iran agreement. The account has now invested $31,000 to predict that a US-Iran diplomatic meeting will take place this month, with an average buy-in probability of 33.15%. Currently, that probability is about 12%.

On September 18, SlotinCap posted that next week is a "geopolitical Super Bowl," covering multiple key events that could trigger conditions for a meeting between the two sides:

The first node is Trump's decision window at Camp David. Trump recently told Axios that he is facing a major decision on whether to "destroy the Iranian regime," and said the next step could be continued large-scale military action or a renewed push for diplomacy. SlotinCap believes that Trump has previously made a policy shift toward Iran at Camp David, so this trip has high information value.

The second node is the United Nations General Assembly. The US State Department has already approved Iranian President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi, and a core delegation to travel to New York to attend the UN General Assembly. Pezeshkian is expected to deliver a speech on September 23. The visa approval shows that Washington is willing to allow Iran's top representatives to enter the United States, and also provides realistic conditions for in-person contact.

The third node is Trump's expected meeting on September 22 with representatives of the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman; the fourth node is a meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state.