New Fable Release Rumors Quadruple Odds, 77% Win Rate Account Predicts No Launch Before November

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on September 1, Anthropic publicly released Claude Fable 5.1; as of September 18, no announcement of Fable 5.2 has appeared on the official website.

On the prediction market Polymarket, Hakei. has currently invested $2.2k to predict "No" on "Will the next Fable-level model be released before November?" At the time of purchase, the "Yes" probability was 34%, and the "Yes" probability is currently 66%.

Trading with 90%+ as late-stage trades, Hakei. has a total of 13 open trades in the Claude sector, with a win rate of 77%, PnL +$8.0k, and this investment is 12.20 times the median investment among them.

X account kimmonismus stated on September 5 that Anthropic would soon launch a major update, and on September 8 pointed the window to late September or early October. Before this news was released, the "Yes" probability in this market was 16%.