Rate hike靴子落地, tech stocks lead the rally, and the smart money predicting the S&P's daily performance makes another move.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on September 17, U.S. stocks saw broad gains: the Dow +0.62%, the S&P 500 +1.14%, and the Nasdaq +1.69%. On the prediction market Polymarket, 0x06b293 put $404.7 into "S&P 500 (SPX) closes lower on September 18."

If counting only positions where the buy price was below 90% (excluding late-session trades) and held to settlement (excluding non-prediction trades), the account's performance in the relevant sectors is as follows:

Daily Close & Financials sector: 220 trades, win rate 50%, PnL +$122.3k, this bet was 0.8x its median bet size.
Index sector: 189 trades, win rate 60%, PnL +$77.8k, this bet was 1.09x its median bet size.
SPX sector: 83 trades, win rate 43%, PnL +$127.7k, this bet was 0.2x its median bet size.

Some analysts say the market is not merely trading the disappearance of rate-hike bearishness, but is trading the easing of several immediate pressures: Brent oil prices fell about 1% that day, with reports saying Saudi crude was rerouted through Oman, temporarily cooling worst-case expectations of supply disruptions; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also retreated from above 5% to about 4.93%.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that historically, in the first three months after a rate-hiking cycle begins, the S&P 500 has averaged a drawdown of about 2%; Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, advised continuing to favor large-cap quality stocks with stable cash flow rather than chasing highly volatile small-cap stocks.