SEC's New Tokenized Stock Policy Ignites UNI, Probability of Hitting $15.5 This Year Doubles

According to PolyBeats monitoring, as of the time of writing, the probability of UNI touching $15.5 this year on Polymarket rose from 9% two hours ago to as high as 22%, and is currently at 15%. UNI has risen about 26.3% in the past 24 hours. Based on the current price of about $8.48, UNI needs to rise about 82.8% for this market to resolve as "Yes."

The bullish catalyst in this round came from the SEC's "innovation exemption" released yesterday: qualifying tokenized U.S. stock trading venues may use permissioned AMMs and liquidity pools for on-chain trading, and some liquidity providers are granted a temporary, conditional dealer exemption.

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams subsequently emphasized that the ordinary permissionless Uniswap does not rely on this exemption; what truly benefits are the Permissioned Pools that can host compliant assets and qualified users on Uniswap v4. The SEC's rule does not directly approve Uniswap, but it pushes its existing compliant AMM infrastructure to the center of the tokenized securities narrative.

BlockBeats reported that on September 18, two newly created addresses withdrew a cumulative 1.07 million UNI from Binance, Bybit, and OKX, worth about $8.38m; active trading on Robinhood Chain, as well as expectations that protocol fees will be tied to UNI burning, are also strengthening UNI's value capture narrative. Uniswap has previously disclosed that its Permissioned Pools can provide an on-chain compliant trading path for regulated assets such as tokenized funds, securities, and stocks.