Renowned Trader Starts Bear Market Countdown, Account with 95% Win Rate Predicts Massive Volatility for BTC
According to PolyBeats monitoring, KURAKAO bought "the US will strike Iran on February 28" before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in February this year, investing $6k for a 15x return. His past trades on BTC price predictions were almost all late-stage trades with entry prices above 99%. His total investment in "Will BTC hit $85k in September?" was $1.84k.
KURAKAO has made 166 trades in the crypto sector, with a 95% win rate and a PnL of +$1.9k. This investment was 1.92x his median investment.
KURAKAO currently holds seven tiers of double-sided touch "Yes" contracts ranging from $60k to $100k: if BTC remains within the $70k–$85k range, all positions expire worthless; but if there is a downward move to $65k, an upward breakout above $90k, or a sharp move within the month that first drops and then rises, multiple tiers of contracts will simultaneously settle as "Yes."
On September 17, BTC quantitative trader Killa, based on historical cycle calculations, believes this bear market may bottom in early October, only about 20 days away from the low point in his model.
Over the past 48 hours, two bullish signals have emerged at the policy level. On September 16, the US House Financial Services Committee advanced the "American Reserve Modernization Act," which seeks to enshrine Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan into law and require the Treasury to maintain secure Bitcoin storage facilities; although the bill has not yet passed the Senate, it reinforces the narrative that "Bitcoin is a national strategic reserve asset."
There are also new developments on the institutional side. Deutsche Bank announced on September 16 that it plans to launch regulated digital asset custody services for European institutional and corporate clients this year, initially covering BTC, ETH, and some stablecoins; JPMorgan noted that if IBIT's high short and hedge positions decline, BTC could gain additional support relative to gold.
