2026 Fed terminal rate outlook: The probability of an additional 50 basis point hike is 37.2%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged at current levels is 13.3%.

BlockBeats news, September 18 - According to CME FedWatch data, following the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, market discussion has shifted focus to whether this hike is merely a policy "recalibration" or the starting point of a new cycle of consecutive rate increases.

There are two remaining FOMC meetings in 2026, scheduled for October and December. Currently, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in October is 49.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 5.9%. As of December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels is 13.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 37.1%.