The handpicked Federal Reserve Chairman is not obedient; the probability of Trump insulting Warsh is 8%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has publicly called for lower interest rates at least 6 times since April, and Hassett also said before the rate hike that caution was warranted ahead of the midterm elections; but Warsh promised Fed independence from his confirmation hearing through after taking office, and on September 16 pushed for a unanimous rate hike on the grounds that inflation was too high.

Over the past two weeks, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Trump insults Warsh this month" rose from 6% at the beginning of the month to a high of 50% yesterday; after Warsh announced the rate hike, Trump sharply criticized the entire Fed Board as "hostile and politicized," yet still said he trusted Warsh and hoped he would remain independent.

Currently, there are 6 notable accounts in this market:
Mrage bought $435 "Yes," with a buy probability of 29%. This account has made 90 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 51%, PnL +$8.6k, and this bet is 2.77 times its median bet size.
Nasmutin bought $100 "Yes," with a buy probability of 8.16%. This account has made 109 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 41%, PnL +$2.2k, and this bet is 1.24 times its median bet size.
wan123 bought $4.8k "No," with a buy probability of 70.5%. This account has made 275 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 44%, PnL +$1.4m, and this bet is 1.40 times its median bet size.
pantomime bought $2.69k "No," with a buy probability of 74.72%. This account has made 2,089 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 54%, PnL +$124.9k, and this bet is 16.02 times its median bet size.
TBill1 bought $1.63k "No," with a buy probability of 79.42%. This account has made 132 trades in the Trump sector, with a win rate of 48%, PnL +$11.8k, and this bet is 11.11 times its median bet size.
paddaa bought $1.49k "No," with a buy probability of 82.4%. This account has made 1,465 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 59%, PnL +$159.5k, and this bet is 3.55 times its median bet size.