Analyst: Fed Decision May Have Greater Impact on Bitcoin Than Stalled CLARITY Act

BlockBeats news, September 16 — Bitcoin fell 0.9% intraday and is down about 4% over the past week. Earlier, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 vote, short of the 60 votes needed to begin debate. Analysts believe that while the bill's setback is disappointing, the Fed's rate decision that day and dollar liquidity are more critical to Bitcoin's price.

Stephen Wundke, Head of Strategy and Revenue at Algoz, said the market expects about a 93% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike, up from just 33.1% a month ago, so the hike itself is largely priced in and investors will focus on the post-meeting language. If the Fed signals that this hike is a protective measure against risks, the crypto market could gain support in the fourth quarter; if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish signals, Bitcoin could retest the $63,000 low.

Talos data shows that before the decision, investors' net buying bias toward stablecoins reached 28%, compared with an average net selling bias of 8% during previous Fed meetings. Bitcoin buying appetite fell from 10% to 3%, and Ethereum from 23% to 9%. Among them, hedge funds still maintained a 25% net buying bias, but systematic and quantitative strategies have clearly turned to selling, reflecting that investors are reducing risk and increasing liquidity. Current order book depth is generally stable, and after the decision, attention should be paid to whether stablecoin funds flow back into trading platforms.

Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey, said the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance may prolong the market's bottoming process, but the "true pricing mechanism" for the current decline is still dollar liquidity, not congressional legislation. U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5% again, rising energy prices, and increasing inflationary pressure are all tightening financial conditions; even if the bill passes, it would not directly trigger a new bull market.