The probability of the Clarity Act receiving more than 60 votes in favor is 32%; a look at the key senators' stances.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently, the probability of more than 50 senators supporting the bill is 47%, and the probability of more than 60 senators supporting the bill is 32%. In the common scenario where all 100 senators vote, typically 51 votes are sufficient to pass a bill. The real reason the market is highly focused on 60 votes is that if the Senate encounters a filibuster, ending debate usually requires 60 votes.

In another related trading event "Whether Senator ___ will support the Clarity Act":

Thom Tillis (Republican-North Carolina) has a 41% probability of voting in favor of the bill. Tillis was a co-releaser of the May Senate Banking Committee text and a key negotiator on ethics provisions; on September 14, the Associated Press reported that Trump had agreed to about 80% of the Tillis-Gallego plan, but he himself has not yet publicly committed to ultimately voting in favor.

Ruben Gallego (Democrat-Arizona) has seen the probability of voting in favor of the bill drop from 54% yesterday to 32% currently. Gallego voted in May to advance the bill out of committee, but at the time emphasized that "committee support does not represent the final floor vote." He is now one of the most critical Democratic swing votes: not opposed to the regulatory framework itself, but demanding that ethics, consumer protection, anti-money laundering, and state attorney general enforcement provisions be in place.

Mark Warner, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Raphael Warnock have probabilities of supporting the reversal of 21%, 25%, and 28%, respectively. The three, together with Gallego, stated in July their opposition to the Republican version at the time, with reasons centered on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest, and market integrity, but they also said they would continue negotiations to push the bill over the line.