Forecasting interest rates for two and a half years, 13 consecutive accurate predictions, an account with a 0% success rate predicts no rate hike this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, LT1 was created in February 2024 and once made a $125k profit by predicting Trump would win the presidential election.

Over the past 2 years, this account made 13 Fed rate predictions, all buying extreme rate moves with less than 5% probability, and not a single one was profitable, with a total loss of -$79.7k.

The account has currently put in $18k betting that the Fed will not cut rates by 25 basis points this week, while also putting in $1.1k as a "lottery position" to retain the possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week.