Jiang Zhuoer: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has been priced in by mature markets such as US stocks, while the crypto market may be relatively underpriced.

BlockBeats news, September 15 - Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lelbit Mining Pool (B.TOP), stated in a post that with less than 48 hours until the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 91.8%. He believes the suspense now lies not in whether the rate hike will occur, but in the hawkish or dovish tone of the Fed's statement following the hike.

Jiang Zhuoer noted that since the Fed began immediately announcing rate decisions in 1994 and CME futures implied probabilities came into widespread use, there has been no precedent of rate hike probability reaching current levels without an eventual hike. Based on historical pricing in the week before meetings, as long as the market priced in at least 16 basis points—approximately a 64% probability of a hike—the Fed ultimately chose to raise rates.

He stated that if the Fed decides not to hike due to political factors, it typically manages market expectations in advance through official speeches or media leaks to avoid significant deviations from pricing that could trigger financial market turmoil. Rate hike expectations have already been priced into mature markets such as US stocks, but due to the higher retail participation in the crypto market, the related pricing may be relatively insufficient.