Houthi Armed Forces claim to have seized a key port near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; Smart money predicts the strait will close within the year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, RememberAmalek invested $20.8k on "Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be closed this year?" betting "Yes," with an average entry probability of 20.1%. The current "Yes" probability is 27.5%.

RememberAmalek's best-related category in this market is geopolitics, with a net profit of $161k in that category. Its win rate across 675 settled trades in this category is 355/675 (53%), of which 124 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.151-$0.3), its historical median investment amount is $563, and this trade's investment is 36.9 times that median.

The Houthis seized the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mocha on September 10. Mocha port is approximately 80 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and represents one of the Houthis' most significant territorial advances in recent years; the Associated Press said this development brings them closer to threatening shipping at the southern entrance of the Red Sea.

Preliminary data from Kpler shows that as of 15:14 UAE time that afternoon, only 6 ships had transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, down from 30 the previous day and 26 and 29 in the two days before that.

However, existing reports confirm that Yemeni government forces have withdrawn or regrouped from the Hanish Islands and Zuqar Island, among other locations, but the actual control of Perim Island remains unclear; the Yemeni Presidential Palace stated that West Coast forces are redeploying and are still defending the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the coast, and the islands.

According to market rules, it will only settle as "Yes" if the IMF PortWatch-reported 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or below on any day within the year.