August rebound nearly wipes out profits, stubborn bears return to continue predicting BTC won't reach $80,000 within the month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Egozic86 placed $4.9k on "No" in "Will BTC hit $80k in September?", with an average buy probability of 21.1%, while the current "Yes" probability is 64.0%.

Egozic86 placed $4.9k, and the best-correlated sector for this market is Bitcoin, where the sector net profit is $57.4k. In this sector, the account has a win rate of 68/86 (79%) across 86 settled trades, including 18 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical amount invested is $802.

The account previously accumulated profits by predicting that BTC would not reach higher price levels. In June, related price markets generated a total profit of about $26.5k, of which "not hitting $67.5k" contributed about $23.2k. The rally around August 19 caused multiple "No" positions to lose, with a monthly loss of about $79.5k, nearly wiping out previously accumulated profits. As of today, the account's overall profit has recovered to about $13.9k.

The account adjusted its timeframes and price thresholds: in late August, it reduced part of its "not hitting $85k before year-end" position, and in September bought "not hitting $80k, $82.5k within the month." Currently, the $80k "No" position has an unrealized profit of about $3.0k, the $82.5k "No" position is worth about $4.4k, and the year-end $85k "No" position still has about $21.7k. Overall, he shifted part of his funds toward shorter timeframes, continuing to predict that BTC's rebound will be limited.

Expectations for U.S. fiscal and monetary policy have turned hawkish. If long-term yields continue to rise, this could push up the dollar and risk-free rates, compress market liquidity, and reduce investors' willingness to allocate to risk assets such as BTC; the failure of Treasury buybacks to effectively ease pressure in the bond market may also reinforce market concerns about U.S. fiscal financing pressure and rising term premiums, putting short-term pressure on BTC.