Oil prices break $100; oil sector account with 88% win rate gives back profits on short positions and flips long.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money address invested $23.8k in "Will WTI crude oil hit $105 in September?" betting "Yes," with an average entry probability of 78.7%; the current "Yes" probability is 81.2%.

zxdw invested $23.8k, and the best-related sector for this market is oil, with a net sector profit of $8.5k. In this sector, their win rate across 17 settled trades is 15/17 (88%), of which trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95 total 0. Within a similar cost-price range ($0.801-$0.85), their historical median investment amount is $4.0k.

This account profited nearly $10k from predicting oil prices from June to August, but due to the sudden surge in September oil prices, multiple range positions predicting that September oil prices would not rise incurred losses, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $30.8k on the September WTI portfolio.

In the September portfolio, in addition to the "Yes" position on a rise to $105, they also hold "No" positions worth about $113.8k in total on rises to $110, $115, $120, $130, and $140, plus about $8.3k predicting that crude oil will not hit an all-time high before the end of the month. The account recently bought a small amount of September "Yes" positions for rises to $110 and $115 to reduce the risk of the existing "No" positions if oil prices continue to rise.

War and sanctions risks continue to push oil prices higher. The Trump administration continues to pressure Russia and has taken a hard line on Iran's nuclear issue and oil exports, fueling market concerns about supply disruptions and disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Global economic demand remains resilient: on the 10th, the International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of about 3% in 2026 and said AI investment is forming a new demand driver, while energy stockpiling before winter in the Northern Hemisphere will also increase purchasing demand; U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 162k in August, well above the 56k expectation, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.