Winter is coming—can Russia and Ukraine achieve a ceasefire this year? An account with an 85% win rate on the Ukraine board makes a prediction.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the account's overall positions indicate that it believes Russia and Ukraine will resume contact in the coming months, but will not reach a ceasefire or peace agreement.

Outsmarter invested $1k on "Yes" in "Will Russian and Ukrainian representatives hold peace talks before December?", with an average entry probability of 68.5%, and the current "Yes" probability is 68.0%.

Outsmarter's best-related category to this market is Ukraine, with a net profit of $60.3k in the category. Its win rate across 41 settled trades in this category is 35/41 (85%), including 4 trades with an entry price below $0.8 and an exit price above $0.95.

Its main profits in the Ukraine category came from the Trump-Zelensky meeting +$47.4k, the Ukraine commander-in-chief's position +$6.3k, a ceasefire within the year +$3.7k, and the timing of diplomatic talks +$2.3k.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia hopes that U.S.-mediated Russia-Ukraine negotiations will resume as soon as possible, and stated that all parties have confirmed the political will to continue talks. Russian and Ukrainian representatives have not held relevant talks since February. Trump recently dispatched special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to visit Moscow and Kyiv successively, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. side may formulate a roadmap to restart negotiations. Trump said on the 9th that Putin expressed a willingness to reach an agreement during their phone call.

U.S., Ukrainian, and some European intelligence officials still doubt Russia's willingness to end the war, and Ukraine also refuses to accept Russia's demand for further territorial concessions. Current diplomatic activity has increased the possibility of representatives meeting, while territorial arrangements and security guarantees remain the main obstacles to resuming formal negotiations.