Apple's High-Priced Foldable iPhone Faces a Major Test: Can the Duo Open a New Growth Cycle?
BlockBeats news, September 10 — Apple's first foldable iPhone Duo has officially launched, pushing the iPhone price ceiling to $1,999 and sparking market debate over whether a high-priced foldable can become Apple's new growth engine or will ultimately remain a niche high-end product.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, has sharply raised his Duo forecasts, projecting that its contribution to iPhone revenue will double from 5% to 10% in fiscal 2027, and calling the Duo Apple's most important new product since AirPods in 2016. He believes that if about one-third of Pro Max users switch to the Duo, it could drive a 5% increase in iPhone revenue and roughly a 2.5% increase in Apple's total revenue.
But Wall Street is clearly cautious. Morningstar believes the Duo could lift iPhone average selling prices, but expects iPhone unit sales to be roughly flat in fiscal 2027; at the same time, rising memory costs could pressure Apple's gross margin. Jefferies, meanwhile, maintained its "underperform" rating, arguing that the Duo's 256GB entry-level version may mean Apple is prioritizing sales volume over per-unit profit.
The bigger challenge comes from market size. Foldable phones currently account for only about 2% of global smartphone sales, and FDM CCS Insight expects that to rise to only about 4% over the next decade. Forrester therefore warns that the Duo could become a high-priced niche product like Vision Pro, or it could establish an independent market like Apple Watch, but whether it can reach a meaningful scale remains to be seen.
The Duo is priced at $1,999, with the 2TB version costing up to $3,199. Pre-orders will open on October 16, with availability on October 23. At the same time, Apple has raised the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro to $1,199. For incoming CEO John Ternus, whether the Duo can become the next iPhone growth engine will also be his first major test after taking office.
