Strategy repurchases $176 million of STRC, smart money predicts it will still struggle to hit $100 this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, danielleggerman placed $3.9k on "No" in "Will STRC reach $100 this month?", with an average buy probability of 66.0%, and the current "Yes" probability is 33.5%.

danielleggerman placed $3.9k, and the best-related category for this market is cryptocurrency, with a category net profit of $22.3k. In this category, their win rate across 57 settled trades is 48/57 (84%), including 8 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.601-$0.75), their median historical investment amount is $1.1k.

This account currently only holds a "No" position in this market, has a relatively high historical win rate in the cryptocurrency category, and its main profits in this category come from previously successfully predicting the one-day FDV range for lighter's launch and successfully predicting the airdrop timing for lighter and Monad.

Strategy spent about $176m last week to repurchase STRC and increased the size of its digital credit securities repurchase program from $1b to $2b. The company did not buy or sell Bitcoin during the same period. In the prior week, Strategy had purchased 4,603 Bitcoins for about $370m, and currently holds about 845k coins, with an average buy price of about $75.4k.

STRC is a floating-rate perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, and the company pushes its price close to $100 by adjusting the dividend rate and repurchase scale. STRC closed at about $97.85 on the 9th, while Bitcoin fell back to about $78k that day, and Strategy's common stock also fell about 2.8%. The company's repurchases after the Bitcoin pullback have not yet led STRC's price to recover.