BCA: AI capital expenditure can still continue for three to five years, and mega IPOs will become a warning sign for a high-level market.

BlockBeats news, September 10 — BCA noted in its latest macro report that in the first quarter of 2026, IT investment in software, hardware, and data centers contributed 0.8 percentage points to U.S. real GDP growth, the highest this century. Compared with the 1990s tech investment cycle, current AI capital expenditure may still have three to five years to run.

The institution believes that improving data center revenue and profit margins have already provided a foundation for hyperscale cloud providers to continue expanding. Even if the commercialization of frontier large models runs into price wars, falling model usage costs could also drive more enterprises to adopt AI, further fueling demand for computing power, servers, electricity, and data centers.

However, BCA also warns that the variable that truly warrants caution may come from equity supply. The report views "mega IPOs" as an important alarm signal for a high-level market: when large new listings cluster and fundraising scales rapidly expand, market liquidity will be diverted, and valuation expansion will more easily lose momentum. Its historical charts show that within two years after major IPOs, the S&P 500 has on average seen a peak-to-trough drawdown of about 24%.

BCA's judgment is that AI capital expenditure will still support earnings and growth, but mega IPOs, the financing environment, and rising yields will determine when this market cycle shifts from "earnings-driven" to a "liquidity test."