A trader may be anticipating that election pressure will ease US-Iran tensions, shorting crude oil and further increasing their speculative position.

BlockBeats News, September 9 - According to TradingBeats monitoring, smart money address Valen9, while continuing to hold prediction positions related to a Democratic congressional sweep, added approximately $123,500 in WTI crude oil short positions yesterday. Between 00:06 and 01:57 AM today, it spent approximately $2,719 to purchase 19,400 shares of "Yes" on the market predicting the U.S. will announce an end to the Iran blockade before the end of September.

As of press time, Valen9's relevant positions include:

WTI crude oil short position: 3,723.468 contracts, with a notional size of approximately $347,600, average entry price of $91.082, and an unrealized loss of approximately $8,490;

"End of Iran blockade by end of September" Yes: holding 88,100 shares, with an average cost corresponding to an implied probability of 30.44%. The current probability has dropped to 13.5%, with a position value of approximately $11,900 and an unrealized loss of approximately $14,900;

"Democrats control both chambers" Yes: holding 32,100 shares, with an average cost corresponding to a probability of 47.73%. The current probability stands at 51.5%, with a position value of approximately $16,500 and an unrealized gain of approximately $1,207;

"Republicans control both chambers" No: holding 2,986 shares, valued at approximately $2,643. Additionally, it holds approximately $112,800 combined in "Democrats control the House" Yes and "Republicans control the House" No positions.

The conflict is driving up energy and living costs, which could continue to erode Republican electoral prospects. The greater the election pressure, the stronger the political incentive for the White House to push for de-escalation and lower energy prices before November.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 25 showed that on the issue of living costs, voters favor Democrats by 36% to 28%. Additionally, Democrats also hold an advantage in handling the U.S.-Iran war. A Reuters report on September 2 noted that some senior aides to Trump are pushing to avoid further escalation of the Iran war before the midterm elections to mitigate the impact on Republican electoral prospects, but this strategy is being tested by ongoing exchanges of fire.