AI predicts a 73% win rate, smart money is confident Google will not release Gemini 4 this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money trader has invested $1,400 betting "No" on the question "Will Gemini 4.0 be released within this month?", with an average buy-in probability of 69.8%. Currently, the "Yes" probability stands at 29.5%.

George.Smiley invested $1,400, and the best related sector for this market is Artificial Intelligence, with a net profit of $48,100 in that sector. Across 137 settled trades in this sector, their win rate is 100/137 (73%), of which 29 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.601-$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $654.

Google has confirmed the existence of Gemini 4. On July 21, Google stated it had initiated the "most ambitious pre-training" of Gemini 4 to date, and on July 22, Sundar Pichai reiterated this during the earnings call. However, neither official announcement provided a release date, specific model version, pricing, or API name.

The "Yes" camp argues that Google has recently released Gemini 3.6, 3.7, and 3.8 Flash in quick succession, indicating that the model team is still iterating at a high frequency.