HTX DeepThink: Employment Resilience Undermines the Case for a Pause in Rate Hikes, CPI Becomes the First Stress Test for the New Policy Framework

BlockBeats News, September 8 - Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, noted in her analysis that August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, significantly beating expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, largely undermining the trading logic that "rapid labor market deterioration would force the Fed to pause." Market focus has now shifted to this week's CPI: strong employment does not necessarily mean the Fed must hike rates, but it does provide greater policy flexibility. Warsh declined to make forward commitments at Jackson Hole, making this week's inflation data the first real stress test of the new policy framework. If core CPI fails to show a convincing decline, maintaining the current stance could damage the Fed's anti-inflation credibility.

Risk assets are expected to remain in weak consolidation this week, with direction to be determined after the CPI release. If core inflation cools moderately, the probability of rate hikes will quickly decline, and BTC could break above $82,500, with US growth stocks rebounding in tandem; if core inflation re-accelerates, the market will further price in a September rate hike, US Treasury yields may test 5%, and BTC could pull back to the $74,000-$77,000 range, putting greater pressure on high-valuation AI, Neocloud, and altcoin sectors.

The baseline scenario for September is not a one-way decline, but rather "rate shock in the first half of the month, followed by stabilization and recovery after the FOMC meeting," with BTC's main trading range expected to be between $74,000 and $88,000. The dollar has not strengthened significantly alongside rate hike expectations, and BTC remains near $80,000, indicating a degree of market resilience; however, until long-end yields decline, risk assets lack the macro conditions for sustained one-way rallies.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.