Bull market coming? Bitcoin holds $80,000, with a 72% win-rate prediction account betting BTC will break $85,000 this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money trader placed $1,000 on "Yes" for the question "Will Bitcoin break $85,000 this month?" with an average buy-in probability of 63.7%. The current "Yes" probability stands at 52.5%.

WilT invested $1,000, with the best correlated sector for this market being cryptocurrency prices, where the sector has generated a net profit of $21,100. Across 363 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 260/363 (72%), including 115 trades where the buy price was below $0.80 and the sell price exceeded $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.551-$0.70), the median historical investment amount is $590.

On September 6, Jiang Zhuocr, founder of莱比特矿池 (Lubian Mining Pool), stated that since the significant BTC rally on August 20, the market has not yet seen a notable pullback. The market remains in the early stages of a bull run filled with distrust and skepticism, with many investors harboring deep fears of a sharp crash.

Bitcoin currently needs to rise approximately 6.1% to reach $85,000. Following the release of the U.S. employment report, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, causing Bitcoin to briefly dip to $79,595 before recovering to around $80,000.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see capital inflows. Data from Farside Investors shows a net inflow of $731 million on September 3, marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly eight months, followed by an additional $175 million on September 4. Over these two trading days, approximately $905 million flowed into these funds, with BlackRock's IBIT, ARKB, and Fidelity's FBTC seeing the largest inflows.
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