HTX DeepThink: BTC Breakout Validity Yet to Be Verified, Spot Demand Emerging as Key Variable

BlockBeats News, September 4th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe pointed out that the current market is not unilaterally bullish, but has transitioned from a bear market structure to a crucial trend confirmation stage. The macro focus is shifting from inflation to employment: if employment continues to weaken and core inflation continues to improve, the Fed will have room to pivot from a rate hike pause to a rate cut, which could become the biggest potential liquidity catalyst for risk assets in the fourth quarter.

However, BTC has entered a dense supply zone of $81,000 to $86,000, and any further rise must be driven by real spot demand rather than short squeeze. The previous rise from $60,000 to $80,000 was accompanied by around $3 billion in short liquidations, followed by a roughly 11% decrease in open interest and neutral funding rates, indicating that the leverage structure is not overcrowded but also suggesting that most of the short squeeze momentum has been exhausted. Of more concern is that despite BTC breaking back above $81,000, in the first three trading days of September, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a slight net outflow of around $46 million, in sharp contrast to the continuous inflow of over $2.8 billion during the August breakout stage. The current market is therefore closer to a "price breakout attempt" rather than a confirmed start of a new bull market.

The base case scenario (about 50%) is that BTC will undergo high volatility consolidation between $78,000 and $86,000, with a solid daily close above around $83,300 and simultaneous consecutive ETF inflows along with expanding spot volume being key indicators to confidently target the $90,000 to $100,000 range. In the optimistic scenario (about 25%), if CPI significantly undershoots expectations, employment weakens rapidly, and U.S. bond yields trend downwards, the market could transition directly from a "rate hike pause" to anticipating the "next rate cut," potentially propelling BTC quickly into the $90,000 to $100,000 range following a breakout above $86,000. The pessimistic scenario (about 25%) involves CPI rising again due to oil prices, tariffs, or service inflation, prompting the market to reconsider a rate hike, leading to a potential top formation between $81,000 and $86,000; support levels below are at $78,000 and $75,000 to $76,000, with $75,000 being a significant defense line in this breakout structure, corresponding to approximately an 11% to 12% retracement. In such a scenario, ETH, SOL, and mid-to-small-cap altcoins typically experience amplified declines compared to BTC.

In the coming two months, what is worth tracking is not just the BTC price, but whether the price, spot volume, ETF fund flows, open interest, funding rates, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields can all confirm simultaneously. The strongest bullish signal would be a high-volume BTC breakthrough above $86,000 with consecutive large ETF inflows and without overheating open interest and funding rates. The most concerning scenario would be if BTC continues to rise around $83,000 to $86,000 but with declining volume and ETF inflows, coupled with rapid leverage accumulation — this would indicate a classic scenario of price rise divergence from spot demand.

Note: This article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any investment product.