Tonight's NFP Preview: The August NFP Report is Expected to Reflect Ongoing Labor Market Weakness, Significant Surprises Needed to Impact Fed Policy

BlockBeats News, September 4th. Tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the United States will release the August nonfarm payroll report. The market expects a gain of 56,000 jobs, following an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July. Economists' forecasts range from a loss of 25,000 jobs to a gain of 121,000 jobs, reflecting significant disagreement in the market regarding the labor market conditions.

The market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, while some economists forecast an increase to 4.2%. The annualized wage growth rate may slow down from 3.2% to 3%. Michael Gapen, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, estimates that the revocation of temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants could drag nonfarm payroll down by about 15,000 jobs. The rebound in local government education, leisure, and hospitality employment may provide support.

Most economists believe that unless there is a significant surprise in the nonfarm data, the report is unlikely to directly influence the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 15th and 16th. The market's focus will shift to next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated clearly on Thursday that if the upcoming data confirms a cooling of inflationary pressures, he would lean towards supporting keeping rates unchanged this month. Currently, the market predicts a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.