OpenAI's CEO sees Astra as the starting point for AGI, with only a 24% chance of it becoming the best model

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 new accounts (tigertest1, Chinchinnati, Ac2phan) have invested $2,100 in the question "Will OpenAI have the best AI model this month?", believing "yes," with an average buy-in probability of 17.3%. The current probability of "yes" is 26.4%.

GPT-6 Astra has not yet appeared on the Arena.ai leaderboard as the settlement source for this market. The current top-ranked model is Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 Max, with OpenAI's highest-ranking model being GPT-5.5-high, currently at 24th place.

OpenAI's self-testing data released on the 3rd day shows that Astra scored 98% on FrontierMath Tier 4, 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3, and 100% on ExploitBench. Astra is OpenAI's first model to reach the "critical" threshold for network security capabilities. The company has implemented stricter isolation, model weight encryption, and end-to-end monitoring measures.

OpenAI CEO Greg Brockman stated that looking back in a few years, people may consider Astra or this time point as the starting point of AGI. However, being the "smartest in the world" remains OpenAI's own benchmark.
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